I analyzed my viral Notes and I finally cracked the algorithm, but there's a catch.

The price of going viral is....

I thought virality was random.

Some people blew up overnight, others (myself included) felt like we were shouting into the void.

But after months of obsessively analyzing what works (and what quietly died), I realized something:

Notes algorithm has a pattern.

It’s just that no one had mapped it out yet. At least not in the way that I’m about to map it for you here.

But there’s a price to pay. Like everything in life.

Let me show you…

The Viral Pattern

There’s a pattern that keep repeating ever since I’m studying Notes (more than 6 months already).

Yes, it took me THAT long to figure it out. I know, I know, it’s unusual…

The thing is: the types of Notes that go viral change all the time and that confused me.

So I thought it was all random.

But I was looking into the wrong thing.

It’s not (only) about the content.

And it’s not (only) about the shape and format your present it.

There’s more to it.

So here’s the core of what I found:

• The first 24–48 hours are crucial.

• What I call “the Bubble test” determines if your Note even has a chance.

• Posting is only half the job, you have to be active before and after to spark momentum.

Plus, there’s a price of going viral. I saw it on Medium, I see it here.

Let’s deep dive…

Oh, one more thing before we do: the things are share are not set in stone. I noticed a pattern, but there are exceptions.

1. The Bubble Test

When you hit “Post,” the only people who see your Note first are your own subscribers and followers.

These are your ride-or-dies, your early adopters, your... well, let’s be honest, sometimes just your family and that one guy who subscribes to everyone.

If they engage, you pass the Bubble Test.

If they don’t, your Note dies quietly in the corner.

Key metric to watch:

You typically need 50-100 interactions (likes, comments, and restacks) within the first 24–48 hours to trigger Substack’s internal distribution engine.

Not official.

Not published anywhere.

But after observing dozens of Notes that actually spread? That’s the pattern.

Of course, there are exceptions: some Notes take off weeks later.

Here's an example of a Note I just published two days ago (stats from the app):

I got only 15 interactions, so I think this one doesn’t have a chance. As you can see, the distribution is mostly in my “Bubble” of followers and subscribers.

Here’s the impression graph:

Yeah, it’s kinda bad. This one doesn’t pass the bubble test.

Here are some other examples:

This one is posted again few days ago, and is just about to start (not sure yet, as it’s still in my bubble). And it has just 42 interactions - just around the milestone where it starts getting more impressions from outside of my bubble:

And I’ve got another one, also published in the last few days. It’s definitely taking off, going outside of my bubble, already reaching an unconnected audience. And it got 246 reactions already.

2. The Algorithm Nudge

Once you hit the engagement threshold, Substack’s algorithm kicks in like a bouncer deciding,
"Yeah, this one's cool enough. Let them into the VIP lounge."

That’s when your Note gets quietly pushed beyond your Bubble (followers and subscribers).

New readers start seeing you in their feeds.
New subscribers start rolling in.
This is when people outside your bubble finally find you.

If you wonder why nobody new ever sees your Notes?
It's because you didn’t give the algorithm enough proof you’re worth amplifying yet.

Now I want to show you one of my viral Notes:

Did you notice it generated more than 500 profile views? That’s your subscribers journey:

→ Note → Profile → Publication

That’s why I keep repeating your profile is CRUCIAL. Watch this mini-course to set-up your profile for high conversion rate.

But let’s look at its impression graph:

This is the pattern I’m talking about - there are stages:

1. Distribution in the Bubble - similar to my average. This was during the first 24-48 hours after posting.

2. Slightly taking off, outside of the Bubble - performance above my average. This happened within a week after posting.

3. Peaking, going viral - this happened about two weeks after posting. And it’s still going.

These stages I noticed in all of my viral Notes except my first one from December - it just doesn’t have that graph, as it was introduced this year.

3. Why Early Likes Matter (Way More Than You Think)

Early engagement is kind of a social proof for the platform.

If Substack sees a bunch of people immediately liking or commenting, it assumes two things:

• Your content is relevant and timely

• Your content is easy for strangers to enjoy

• Your content is likely to be well accepted, liked, commented, restacked

Without that early spike?
You’re invisible.

It’s brutal. But it’s also predictable. Which means you can engineer it.

Here’s the basic framework:

• Have a warm base of subscribers first.
  Notes alone can't build an audience from scratch. Engage more on the platform to put your profile in front of as many eyeballs as possible. Use recommendations to grow subscribers.

• Post when your audience is awake.
  Think mornings, lunch breaks, evenings. Active US hours.

• Engage before you post.
  Be active in Notes, Boosts, and Chats a few hours before posting. It primes your engagement.

• Stay active for 1-2 hours after posting.
  Answer comments. Boost people. Be seen. I noticed this makes my viral notes keep delivering longer.

It’s not magic. It’s momentum.

How many subscribers you need before you start getting momentum?

The math is simple: I noticed the threshold is about 50-100 engagements on a Note.

If your engagement rate if your audience is for example:

• 20%, you need at least 250-500 subscribers

• 5%, you need at least 1000-2000 subscribers

• 1%, you need…ok, that’s too much, but you get the point. My first viral Notes was at 2100 subscribers.

The Price…

I notice this on Medium and I see it here on Substack.

Every time I go viral, I my KPIs drop.

I’m currently at 5.9% free→paid conversion rate. I used to be at 6.5% and growing.

The reason: for now I think it’s because I basically tripled my subscriber growth (from 300 per month to 900 per month) in just a month, and usually people need at least 10 to 20 interactions with me to decide to buy. That takes time.

I want to believe that’s true, but let’s see.

I’m definitely following up on this in my Monthly Round-ups.

Bottom line

If your Notes aren’t going viral yet, you’re not broken.

You’re just early.

Everyone with a giant audience today?

They were once the person getting 3 likes and thinking about deleting their post.

I was there too.

Stay in the game long enough, and you will hit the threshold.

When you do, the platform will do the rest.

Stay Unplugged!

Yana

P.S. I mapped my exact system how I tripled my subscribers growth in a month in the Viral Notes Writer System, so you can replicate it starting tomorrow.

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